This is the Gaian People’s Republic of Boulder. Welcome.

The city of Boulder, CO is superlative in many ways: It is one of the most educated, most affluent, most liberal and most environmentally conscious cities around. According to an article in a recent Wall Street Journal, though, Boulder is having a tough time converting its citizens’ tree-hugging attitudes into meaningful actions.

Thus exposed is a fundamental aspect of human nature. Whatever we may say we like, People Hate Change. It’s one thing to adopt a self-flattering pose to impress a pollster or to cop a public image, but quite another voluntarily to sacrifice money, time or convenience for a nebulous collective benefit.

Even Boulder Finds It Isn’t Easy Going Green

“What we’ve found is that for the vast majority of people, it’s exceedingly difficult to get them to do much of anything,” says Kevin Doran, a senior research fellow at the University of Colorado at Boulder. …

Take George Karakehian. He considers himself quite green: He drives a hybrid, recycles, uses energy-efficient compact fluorescent bulbs. But he refuses to practice the most basic of conservation measures: Shutting the doors to his downtown art gallery when his heating or air conditioning is running.

Mr. Karakehian knows he’s wasting energy. He doesn’t care.

“I’m old-school,” Mr. Karakehian says. “I’ve always been taught that an open door is the way to invite people in.”

Going green is kind of like public transit – people say they’re all for it, when in reality, they’re all for it — for the other guy.

Boulder subsidizes residential energy audits which cost homeowners $200, but even at that price there have been few takers. The city has programs to replace incandescent bulbs with curly, mercury-laden compact fluorescent bulbs, and has swapped out 3,700 strings of incandescent Christmas lights with LED counterparts.

Still, the public has been slow to change its energy use habits in meaningful ways.

But, never fear, as long as there’s a megalomaniacal progressive politician in power.

City officials are frustrated—and contemplating more forceful steps.

The City Council will soon consider mandating energy-efficiency upgrades to many apartments and businesses. The proposals under review would be among the most aggressive in the nation, requiring up to $4,000 a rental unit in new appliances, windows and other improvements. Owners of commercial property could face far larger tabs.

Which has spawned, in turn, a “conservative” backlash:

[T]here are signs Boulder’s efforts are starting to lose favor. Voters county-wide last fall rejected a measure that would have doubled a public fund set up to give homeowners low-interest loans for efficiency upgrades, such as a new furnace.

In the same November election, city voters elected to the council several newcomers eager to moderate Boulder’s aggressive environmentalism.

Among the newly elected: Mr. Karakehian, the gallery owner who insists on keeping his front door open. He is concerned about the city mandating conservation and says his constituents agree.

Cross-posted at RedState.com.

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Bill Nye, the ‘Science’ Guy on Global Warming and Patriotism

“Bill Nye, the Science Guy” made some outrageously offensive and ill-informed statements Wednesday night on MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow Show, going so far as to apply the word “unpatriotic” to those who don’t share his faith in the Church of Climate Change. (Video clip available here. Warning: It’s at HuffPo.)

Nye, who’s primarily known as an entertainer and producer of children’s television, was cast in the role of Official Representative of the Scientific Establishment during Ms. Maddow’s segment on Climate Change. Maddow offered several clips of conservative commentators lampooning the notion of Global Warming, while D.C. digs out of the record-breaking Blizzard of Aught-Ten.

One snowstorm, sayeth the experts Maddow and Nye, does not disprove Climate Change. Well, duh. We skeptics don’t have to disprove anything.

The recent blows to the integrity of the Climate Change community, all of which are self-inflicted, may be enough to bring down their House of Cards without much outside help.

We’re not trying disprove anything, Mr. Science Guy. Your guys are squirming. And we’re enjoying it.

Here are some of Nye’s howlers (complete transcript here):

If you want to get serious about it, these guys claiming that the snow in Washington disproves climate change are almost unpatriotic.  It‘s really … they‘re denying science.

[Asked to distinguish between climate and weather]:  Well, one‘s a small-scale phenomenon, happens day to day.  The other‘s a big phenomenon.  We all know this.  We all feel it in our—in our hearts.

The main thing is: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change got a Nobel Prize.  They got a scientific prize for making a discovery.  They didn‘t get a minor award.  This is a big deal.  They discovered climate change through all kinds of evidence, and it‘s something we should all be very, very concerned about.

This thing of denying science—you know, science has done so much to make this country what it is, a technological leader.  It‘s improved the quality of life for so many people, here and around the world.  To deny what scientists or scientific evidence is showing, is inappropriate.  And as I said earlier, to me, when I get wound up, it‘s unpatriotic.

Emphasis added throughout.

  1. For a Science Guy, you’re doing an awful lot of feeling there, and not a whole lot of thinking. Just sayin’.
  2. Unpatriotic? The patriotism of Jane Fonda, Bill Ayers, Danny Glover and Rosie O’Donnell is unquestionable, but Climate Change skeptics are unpatriotic? Please.
  3. The IPCC, along with Al Gore, won the Nobel Peace Prize, not a scientific Nobel. Other noted Peace Prize recipients: Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter, Kofi Annan, Yassir Arafat…
  4. The IPCC is a political, not a scientific, body. They do no research and they claim no “discoveries”. They certainly didn’t “discover” climate change, unless you count how they harnessed its power as a political bludgeon.
  5. Science has improved our lives in many ways. One way is education. That means that quite a few of us have critical thinking skills, and can appreciate the abuse of science on display in the Climate Change community.

So what makes this guy a science expert? Here’s the CV for Bill Nye, the Science Guy.

  • BS in Mechanical Engineering from Cornell, 1977
  • Registered Engineer since 1983 (WA)
  • honorary PhDs
  • 3 Patents (ballet toe shoe, digital abacus, educational lens)
  • Several Emmys
  • Host and Writer, “Stuff Happens,” television series covering the consequences of human activities on the environment, for Discovery’s Planet Green network

This last bullet is included only because it is the only item in an extensive CV which relates to climate science.

Oddly, your humble correspondent has a similar background, absent the kids’ TV, the toe shoes and the honorary degrees:

  • BS in Petroleum Engineering, Oklahoma, 1978
  • Registered Engineer since 1982 (OK)

The key difference between Bill Nye the Science Guy and Vladimir the Energy Whore may be that Vladimir knows bulls**t when he smells it.

Cross-posted at RedState.com.

P.S. Check the comments at the Science Guy’s website…

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Phishing for Carbon Credits

If you invent a new currency, don’t be surprised when the scammers and counterfeiters show up. Especially when your currency is itself a scam.

Hackers Steal Millions in Carbon Credits

The hackers launched a targeted phishing attack against employees of numerous companies in Europe, New Zealand and Japan, which appeared to come from the German Emissions Trading Authority. The workers were told that their companies needed to re-register their accounts with the Authority, where carbon credits and transactions are recorded.

When workers entered their credentials into a bogus web page linked in the e-mail, the hackers were able to hi-jack the credentials to access the companies’ Trading Authority accounts and transfer their carbon credits to two other accounts controlled by the hackers. …

According to the BBC, it’s estimated the hackers stole 250,000 carbon credit permits from six companies worth more than $4 million. At least seven out of 2,000 German firms that were targeted in the phishing scam fell for it. One of these unidentified firms reportedly lost $2.1 million in credits in the fraud.

Wired’s online commenters seem to get it:

Well somebody’s going to rob the taxpayers blind, it might as well be hackers….

Is it illegal to steal [a] fraudulent product?

What’s next? Possibly this:

Dear Sir or Madam.

I am Ngweke Ndugu, Chief Barrister of the Federal Carbon Bank in Lagos, Nigeria. A recent audit of Carbon Credits on deposit uncovered twenty-two millions of U.S. dollars ($22,000,000.00 ONLY) in unclaimed Carbon Credits …

Cross-posted at RedState.com

@VladimirRS

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DHS: Fossil Fuels and Climate Change are ‘National Threats’

On February 1, Janet Napolitano’s Department of Homeland Security released a 108-page report to Congress, the Quadrennial Homeland Security Review Report. Subtitled “A Strategic Framework for a Secure Homeland”, a quick glance at the report left me questioning whether the DHS is more serious about Homeland Security than they are about advancing Obama Administration policy goals.

The following item is in a bullet list of threats to America’s national interests (p. 7):

• Dependence on fossil fuels and the threat of global climate change that can open the United States to disruptions and manipulations in energy supplies and to changes in our natural environment on an unprecedented scale. Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of weather-related hazards, which could, in turn, result in social and political destabilization, international conflict, or mass migrations.

If there’s a Smithsonian exhibit on Muddled Thinking and Bureaucratic Gobbledegook, that paragraph belongs in it.

“Dependence on fossil fuels … can open the United States to disruptions and manipulations in energy supplies…” Ms. Napolitano, it is not our dependence on fossil fuels that is the problem, it is our dependence on foreign sources of crude oil and the Administration’s determination to exacerbate the problem by limiting domestic access and punishing small domestic producers. While America probably will never be self-sufficient in energy, we could be a lot less dependent of foreign sources of crude if we 1) explored more domestically, and 2) relied more on natural gas.

If, as you say, disruptions and manipulation of crude oil supply threaten our national interest, then it’s time to start doing something about that threat. Even under the most optimistic assumptions for growth of wind and solar energy, we’ll be using more oil, gas and coal thirty years from now than we use today.

Then there’s Climate Change.  No need here to belabor the myriad scandals, conflicts of interest and lapses of judgment that have plagued the Climate Change community of late.

“Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of weather-related hazards…”

We’ve all become conditioned to this blather to the point where we hardly notice. We have, after all, experienced a “hockey stick”, haven’t we, along with an increasing trend in hurricanes and tornadoes?

Hmmm. Not much of a trend there. This graph just considers landfalling hurricanes. Maybe if we look at total hurricanes, landfalling or not, in more detail:

This graph doesn’t include 2009 (which I blogged about here), a rather puny year for storms, even counting a late November storm and an extratropical storm in the North Atlantic that really shouldn’t have counted in the statistics.

OK, there must be a trend in tornadoes:

Hmmm, again. There’s a trend, alright, but it seems like it’s going the wrong way.

Ms. Napolitano, it seems as though your party has a bad habit of taking a government agency with a worthwhile goal (in this case, the critical goal of Homeland Security), and confusing the mission with a mishmash of other incidental policy issues and distractions.

Our use of fossil fuels does not threaten our security.

There is no evidence of an increasing trend in the number or severity of storms.

ManBearPig is not going to kill us all in our beds.

Now, please get back to the serious business of securing our borders and keeping out those who would do our country real harm.

Cross-posted at RedState.com.

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Obama’s Energy Tax Will Even Tax Strippers

The President’s proposed 2011 Budget has tax-raising bulls-eye squarely on every demagogue’s favorite target, “BIG OIL”. Nobody likes Big Oil, right? They’re the Shells, the Exxons and the BPs who keep jacking up gasoline prices, right? WRONG. Regardless of what you think about Big Oil, those companies will hardly notice this tax increase. No, this baby will fall squarely on the backs of smaller, non-integrated domestic producers. The direct cost of this inept policy will be:

  • Loss of American jobs,
  • Loss of American GDP,
  • Increased oil imports, and
  • Reduced energy security.

The current tax system has been in place for decades. It has been successful at doing what it was designed to do: making it easier to raise money for the risky hydrocarbon exploration business, and providing an incentive for marginal well producers to keep low-volume domestic wells on line. Obama proposes to change that.

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SOTU From an Energy Perspective

Wednesday’s State of the Union address was as much about the subjects the President avoided as about the issues or policies he proposed.

The word “wind” occurs not once in the speech. References to solar energy have to do with the number of jobs created building solar panels. Gone are the promises of a future of Rainbows, Unicorns and Magic Windmills; the Administration seems to have come to the realization that wind and solar may make a marginal contribution, but they will never be primary energy sources.

Now the focus is on “advanced biofuels” and “clean coal technology”. Advanced biofuels, relying on algae and whatnot for the generation of diesel equivalent, is one of those technologies that looks great in the lab. Its problem will be scalability, whether industry can figure out how to replace gasoline milllions of barrels at a time.

Clean coal gets the support of the big utilities and the coal companies, but implicit in their support is the government’s financing of the huge capital commitment.

Natural gas is the 800-pound gorilla that the President struggles to avoid. Natural gas delivers everything the President says he’s looking for in an ideal fuel: it is abundant, clean and American. Its infrastructure is in-place and the means to exploit it is off-the-shelf. Innovation and technology have increased the assessed resource base by over a third in just four years; we think we have a 100+ year domestic supply at current consumption rates. A commitment to natural gas would put people to work immediately, not speculatively and not years from now.

It’s as if a profitable, healthy domestic gas industry would create a problem for the President. As illogical as it may seem, his policies discourage domestic exploration. Obama seems to think that profitable, productive capitalists are a symptom of, not a cure for, the disease that ails our economy.

So what’s the problem? Success exacerbates the uneven distribution of wealth? Independent energy producers tend to be red state, conservative Republicans? That the Natural Gas Solution is by its very nature not Obama-centric?

Or maybe ALL OF THE ABOVE?

Back to the speech…

Next, we need to encourage American innovation.  Last year, we made the largest investment in basic research funding in history – an investment that could lead to the world’s cheapest solar cells or treatment that kills cancer cells but leaves healthy ones untouched.  And no area is more ripe for such innovation than energy.  You can see the results of last year’s investment in clean energy – in the North Carolina company that will create 1200 jobs nationwide helping to make advanced batteries; or in the California business that will put 1,000 people to work making solar panels.

But to create more of these clean energy jobs, we need more production, more efficiency, more incentives.

N.B. – “More incentives” = “Your Tax Dollars At Work”

That means building a new generation of safe, clean nuclear power plants in this country.

Wait! Nuclear energy?! Show me five Democrats who are ready to get behind that!

It means making tough decisions about opening new offshore areas for oil and gas development.

Your Interior Secretary has been sitting on a new five-year leasing plan for the OCS, Mr. President – so let’s make those “hard decisions”, already!

It means continued investment in advanced biofuels and clean coal technologies. And yes, it means passing a comprehensive energy and climate bill with incentives that will finally make clean energy the profitable kind of energy in America.

In other words, your brand of “clean energy” can’t cut it in the marketplace. Mine can.

…[A]t a time of record deficits, we will not continue tax cuts [sic – he means “tax breaks” – ed.] for oil companies, investment fund managers, and those making over $250,000 a year. We just can’t afford it.

Obama at his best: World Class Demagogue. Sure everybody hates oil companies, they’re an easy target. But oil companies are actually energy companies. By cynically choosing to demonize the oil industry, and punish them via the tax code, you punish the very companies who find and develop natural gas. The tax code doesn’t distinguish between oil and gas. The advances in natural gas technology have been led by America’s independent producers – the smaller, non-integrated companies who don’t own refineries or sell gasoline.

Note also that the American independent, by and large, won’t immediately benefit from opening the OCS. I would expect the players to be many of the same ones who dominate deepwater exploration. There will be American multinationals like Chevron and ExxonMobil, but also more foreign participation than many realize: Shell, BP, Statoil, Petrobras, Ecopetrol, Repsol, ENI, and even (quietly) CNOOC.

I know there have been questions about whether we can afford such changes in a tough economy; and I know that there are those who disagree with the overwhelming scientific evidence on climate change. [Laughter and catcalls. – ed.] But even if you doubt the evidence, providing incentives for energy efficiency and clean energy are the right thing to do for our future – because the nation that leads the clean energy economy will be the nation that leads the global economy. And America must be that nation.

So what you are saying, Mr. President, is that regardless of the validity of the “science” of Man-Made Global Warming, we should lead the charge to fix it anyway, because that’s what the rest of the world wants? This reminds me of the parental admonition: “If ‘all the other kids’ jump off a cliff, are you going to follow them?” Except in this case, you’re suggesting that America lead the rest of the world off that cliff.

As an engineer, that kind of thinking is anathema to me. Waste kills. By intentionally investing in technologies that are sub-optimum, we squander capital. It is less efficient than it could be. That may cost prosperous countries a few points on the standard-of-living scale; to undeveloped countries, those on the economic margin, it may mean the difference between clean and filthy water, between plagues and health, between life and death.

…[W]e need to export more of our goods. Because the more products we make and sell to other countries, the more jobs we support right here in America. So tonight, we set a new goal: We will double our exports over the next five years, an increase that will support two million jobs in America. … We have to seek new markets aggressively, just as our competitors are. If America sits on the sidelines while other nations sign trade deals, we will lose the chance to create jobs on our shores.

If we force our energy costs to be artificially high, our cost of manufacture go up. American goods are less profitable, and less attractive to foreign markets.

Mr. Obama, you are taking America down the wrong path. The one you have chosen will lead to a reduced level of prosperity and economic stagnation. American, market-based solutions can accomplish most of your stated goals. Wake up, drop the ideology and the demagoguery, and let’s get to work.

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The Leaning Tower of Global Warming

Australian blogger Jo Nova provides a quick recap to help the casual reader keep track of the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scandals.

The Four ‘Gates’ of the IPCC

Let’s see. There’s

  1. Climate Gate, showing that the peer review process has descended into a criminal farce of scientific malpractice …
  2. PachuriGate, showing that the man in charge of the IPCC was chairman of boards of companies that profit handsomely as the scare-factor is ramped up…
  3. GlacierGate, about the IPCC “accidentally” using a World Wildlife Fund report instead of peer reviewed science…   And now…
  4. AmazonGate: The IPCC fabricates disastrous claims about the Amazon forest, and references a document written by activists that doesn’t even support the claim.

Adding insult to injury, not only is that Amazon paper not peer-reviewed, its authors are a PhD forester and fire management expert (not a climatologist), and a journalist.  The paper they co-wrote was for the WWF in conjunction with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature.

OK, so let’s juxtapose this scientific issue with a shaky foundation with the standing of Global Warming as a political issue. From a recent study by the Pew Research Center:

Public’s Priorities for 2010: Economy, Jobs, Terrorism

Global Warming ranks behind Trade Policy, Lobbyists, Moral Decline, and Finance Regulation.

Dealing with global warming ranks at the bottom of the public’s list of priorities; just 28% consider this a top priority, the lowest measure for any issue tested in the survey. Since 2007, when the item was first included on the priorities list, dealing with global warming has consistently ranked at or near the bottom. Even so, the percentage that now says addressing global warming should be a top priority has fallen 10 points from 2007, when 38% considered it a top priority. Such a low ranking is driven in part by indifference among Republicans: just 11% consider global warming a top priority, compared with 43% of Democrats and 25% of independents.

Cross-posted at RedState.com

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Bad Things Happen When We Move Oil Around In Boats

We have to import oil in boats because 1) many Americans are averse to exploring for it at home, and 2) our appetite for oil is unabated.

If we explored more in the U.S., we could move the oil in pipelines, which is much a safer method of transportation. With a pipeline, you have a fixed facility at either end; if something happens to the pipeline, you can tell right away. Any spill is limited to the volume of the line.

Even spills from offshore oil platforms are usually small in volume and relatively inconsequential to the environment because they happen far from shore. A tiny fraction of the oil in the marine environment is from oil producing operations; most of it comes from natural seeps.

Texas oil spill vessels separated, Coast Guard reports

Crews try to protect wildlife from Texas oil spill

The U.S. Coast Guard said about 462,000 gallons (1.75 milion liters) — or 11,000 barrels — of oil spilled into the water Saturday when an 800-foot (244-meter) Malaysian-flagged tanker headed for an Exxon Mobil Corp. refinery in Beaumont collided with a towing vessel pushing two barges near Port Arthur, about 90 miles (145 kilometers) east of Houston.

It was the largest spill in Texas since 1994, but still well shy of one 20 years ago involving Norwegian tanker Mega Borg that leaked 4.3 million gallons (16.28 million liters) of crude oil about 60 miles (96 kilometers) off Galveston.

Photo credit: Julio Cortez, Houston Chronicle/The Associated Press

Cross-posted at RedState.com.

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Energy 101: Hydraulic Fracturing

This week, several news stories converged on an odd topic: hydraulic fracturing.

Fracking Schematic

Fracking Schematic. Note: Vertical scale grossly underrepresents the depth of the producing formation.

Hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking”, has been used since the 1950s to stimulate oil and gas wells. The process involves pumping a sand-laden slurry into a well and subjecting it to enough pressure that the rocks in the productive formation fracture, or break. The purpose of the sand is to prop open the fracture, so it stays in place. The carrying fluid can then flow back out of the well, along with oil and gas if it’s been a successful frac.

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EIA Energy Outlook 2010-2035: Lowered Expectations, Wishful Thinking

Here’s the Executive Summary of Vladimir’s conclusions, based in large part on a highly developed olfactory system, especially sensitive to the aroma of bovine feces:

  • The U.S. economy uses enormous quantities of energy. Even small changes in the fuel mix are difficult to make, and extremely costly if you’re replacing a traditional fuel with a less efficient one. Absent costly policy changes (like Cap and Trade, which is not included in this Outlook), our fuel mix 25 years from now will be much as it is today.
  • EIA’s assumptions give renewable energy sources every advantage, leading to a very optimistic projection of the market share of renewable fuels. Even with these advantageous assumptions, renewables account for only twice the share of the 2035 energy picture compared to today’s. (See Slide 21 (at the end of the post) for the best example of the grossly optimistic treatment of renewables in this Outlook.)
  • Even in EIA’s Reference Case, the growth in renewables doesn’t make up for the projected growth in energy consumption from population and productivity growth
  • Even EIA thinks the U.S. will fall short of the mandated Renewable Fuel Standard (35 billion gallons of ethanol by 2022) that was imposed by the Congress in 2007.
  • EIA projects declining future reliance on liquids imports due to biofuels and production growth in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. These projections seem overly optimistic to me and would suddenly reverse a 40+ year trend of ever-increasing reliance on oil imports. I don’t buy it.
  • Natural gas is still being undervalued as an energy source.
  • The base case assumption is that the 40 year certifications for nuclear power plants will be increased across the board by 20 years. Given the continued unpopularity of nukes with the green crowd, this assumption seems suspect.

This material has been cross-posted at RedState.com.

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